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Welcome to Hermitville. Population One.
Oct. 10th, 2009
08:21 am - 401k
I was thinking about moving around some of the money I have in my 401k account. Right now I'm 100% in equities. I believe the market may be set for a correction, so I'd like to move some of the money into a safe spot so I can re-invested it after the price decrease. Of course, it's a bit of a risk, because the market could continue to climb upward.
Continuing with the worst case scenario where the market continues to climb, the one thing I don't want to do is sell stocks for less than I purchased them. I decided to compare the current S&P 500 level to historical levels, to see how likely that would be. To my great surprise, I discovered that the current value of the S&P 500 is about the same as the Dec. 31 value from 2003. Wow! That is just stunning. It means that every dime I put in between in 2004-2007 is worth less now than when I invested the money.
Another thought... there are dozens and dozens of mutual funds I am eligible to invest in. I keep most of my money in the Fidelity S&P 500 Spartan index fund. The 500 index fund is considered a safe fund because it invests in 500 companies. If any one company fails, your investment will hardly be scratched. There are other mutual funds that invest in specific categories, and these funds generally have large stakes in a small number of companies. For example, there is a fund which focuses on the automotive sector. When I was looking around at the specialty funds, I noticed that a lot of them have produced tremendous returns this year. For example, the automotive fund was up 100% YTD when I checked a couple of weeks ago. I think natural gas was up 50%, even though natural gas prices are depressed right now. I have to wonder if the success the market has had lately is fueled by bubbles in many different sectors. What will happen if the bubbles collapse?
I've waffling about where to put the money I invested prior to 2003.
Oct. 6th, 2009
06:46 pm - Stupid Computer
My computer is giving me problems. Thanks to the internet I came up with a quick solution, but it involved resetting the CMOS jumpers on my motherboard. Apparently nTunes [software for Nvidia video drivers] can mess computers up.
I thought at first my hard drive had failed. I'm glad the HD is fine. I can't afford expensive computer equipment right now.
Jul. 20th, 2009
09:17 pm - Camera Shopping
I have spent the last 2-3 days looking for a digital camera to replace the camera that is currently in my wastebasket. Maybe I didn't spend the ENTIRE time looking for a new camera, but it feels that way.
There are too many choices. There's too many options. It's a bit overwhelming for someone who just wants a point & shoot camera. One of the real frustrations I had is that I would find a camera that received excellent reviews, only to find it had been discontinued because it was last year's model.
After a lot of research I decided I REALLY wanted the Canon G10. I want it so bad. Unfortunately it costs about $500. Also, it's a little too large to carry around in a pocket. There are a lot of good cameras in the $250 range, but I couldn't find one that both suited my needs, and also got an excellent review. Finally I settled on this camera:
http://www.dcresource.com/reviews/panas
It was $149 at buy.com. I hope I've picked a winner, but at this point I don't care. I'm exhausted from my (mostly online) shopping.
Jun. 27th, 2009
06:40 am - Goodbye, Yoshino
My house is surrounded by trees to the north, south, and east. Unfortunately there are no trees to the west, and as a result, summer sunlight hits the house directly and really heats things up! Earlier in the year I decided to remedy this problem by planting a tree on the west side. I had to be a little careful about the type of tree I planted, however. As it happens, there is little room on the west side to plant a tree. The driveway happens to be covering the best place to plant a tree. The second best place is in a little area by the driveway, but it's a spot that is close to my house and awful close to my property line.
I decided to look for a wide tree that wouldn't grow too tall so that I would be able to trim it myself, if necessary. The Yoshino Cherry Tree looked perfect. According to the nursery, the tree grows up to 20 feet high and 25 feet wide. My only reservation about buying the tree was that it isn't native to Missouri (it's from Japan). I ended up getting it anyway.
The tree did great for the first couple of months. It grew surprisingly fast. Then one day, I noticed a few of the leaves were dying. The green part of the leaf had been totally destroyed, leaving only the dessicated veins behind. The tree seemed healthy, otherwise. Then one day I came home to realize 25% of the leaves were destroyed or damaged. I noticed there were a couple dozen beetles on the tree, chomping away and mating. Last night when I came home, 50% of the leaves had been destroyed or damaged.
It turns out my reluctance to buy a non-native tree was warranted. My Yoshino is being ravaged by the Japanese Beetle. The beetle is a real problem for the Yoshino here in the United States because it doesn't have a natural predator. I guess the birds here don't find the beetle to be particularly tasty.
I don' t think the Yoshino will last the year. So this will be a lesson for me: don't ever buy a non-native tree.
May. 24th, 2009
05:10 pm - Ticks!
I took a walk with Sadie this morning in a conservation area I've visited a few times before. The trail was narrow but well maintained. The walk lasted an hour and a half, max. During the walk, I picked about two dozen ticks out of Sadie's hair. I picked off another half dozen in the car on the way home. Once home, I picked a dozen out with tweezers. I brushed four out of her hair (one was already dead). When I hosed her off, one tick (already dead) somehow got stuck to my leg. I figure there are probably another dozen still on her that I haven't seen.
24 + 6 + 12 + 4 + 1 = 47 ticks, and again that's not counting whatever is still on her that I haven't found.
Number of ticks I found on my own body: 1
It's dispiriting. I would really like to do a grand tour of all the parks hereabouts, but it's just not worth having to deal with the ticks. It's bad enough that ticks get all over my dog, but when I bring Sadie home, the ticks drop off and get into the carpet. Last week I caught two ticks crawling up my leg from the carpet. I've also discovered four ticks in bed (all dead but one).
May. 16th, 2009
11:04 pm - Bzzzzzzztt!
Earlier tonight I climbed into bed and invited Sadie to join me. She hopped up but instead of curling up, promptly started to root around the bed like she was searching for something. At first I thought she was a little nuts, but then I decided to turn on the light to make sure there wasn't a big spider in bed with me. I searched the sheets - nothing. I was about to go back to bed when OUCH!!! I felt a great stinging pain in my calf. I stripped off my pajama bottoms (try not to visualize this) and gave them a vigorous shake to dislodge what I assumed to be a nasty spider. Quite to my surprise a hornet burst from the pajamas with an angry buzz!
I think the hornet was in my pajamas the whole time - Sadie heard the buzzing when I couldn't.
So I learned a valuable lesson today: when you hang your pajamas out to dry on the clothesline, shake them out before bringing them back inside!
May. 15th, 2009
05:46 pm - Microsleep
Microsleep - this is from Wikipedia:
"A microsleep is an episode of sleep which may last for a fraction of a second or up to thirty seconds.... People who experience microsleeps usually remain unaware of them, instead believing themselves to have been awake the whole time, or feeling a sensation of 'spacing out'. One example is called "gap driving": from the perspective of the driver, he or she was driving a car, and then suddenly realizes that several seconds have passed by unnoticed. It is not obvious to the driver that he was asleep during those missing seconds, although this is in fact what happened."
I've experienced instances of microsleep since at least my teenage years, although it wasn't until today that I knew I was doing more than just spacing out. The first clear memory I have of experiencing microsleep is from high school. I found myself walking through the school parking lot, with no memory of either driving to the school, or even of getting out of the car. It was a little disconcerting! Since then I've "spaced out" many many times while driving. I wonder how many of those times when I thought I was simply spacing out, I was actually asleep?
The latest instance of microsleep while driving occurred just a couple of weeks ago, as I was coming home from lunch. I had the radio on, but it was turned down low because some annoying commercials had been on earlier. The DJ was gabbing about something, and he said, "wake up!". His statement abruptly ended my microsleep, and for about a second I was really confused. I didn't recognize the road I was driving at all. I thought maybe I had fallen asleep at the wheel, and had driving past my turn-off. Then I saw a stop sign ahead, and realized where I was. I found myself wondering, if the DJ hasn't ended my microsleep, would I have blown through the stop sign?
May. 11th, 2009
08:05 pm - 29%
29%... that's how much my homeowners insurance increased this year!! There was a 17% increase last year, and something similar the year before that.
Needless to say I'm going to look hard for a more competitive rate!
May. 5th, 2009
07:00 pm - Ick
I got up about half an hour early this morning because Sadie wanted to eat. I discovered an unpleasant surprise in the kitchen. I saw my first ever (at least, as an adult) cockroach (!). It was brown & black and exactly an inch long. I think it was a juvenile American cockroach.
My skin has been crawling all day. It didn't help when I read up on roaches, and all that is associated with them: parasites, bacteria, "trail of excrement"... yuck.
It turns out, though, that the American cockroach is one of the easiest to get rid of. They don't breed as quickly as some of the other roaches. I'm going to put out some bait in an attempt to cut down their numbers.
This is the first time I've seen an adult roach, but I may have seen the immature form of the American roach shortly after moving in. At the time, I identified (misidentified?) the bug as a sow beetle. The immature form doesn't have wings, so if I saw it, I certainly wouldn't think roach.
Apr. 19th, 2009
06:18 pm - Earth Day (a little early) and the Computer
I've been without a computer for a few days. I was unable to completely eliminate the trojan/worm/virus/whatever that had infected my computer, so I decided to reformat my hard drive and reinstall windows. That turned out to be quite a chore, but I won't bother you with the details. Anyway, aside from having a problem with my video drivers, my computer is fine.
I did a couple of things recently to help out the planet. First, I decided to plant a tree. I knew just where I wanted to plant it. In the summer, the setting sun hits my house square on and bakes the livingroom. A shade tree would sure help keep that side of the house cool. Unfortunately, I don't have enough land on that side of the house to contain a full sized tree. I decided to look for a small tree, and ended up getting "flowering snowgoose cherry" tree. They grow 15-20 feet tall and 12-15 feet wide which sounds perfect.
The other thing I did was to buy an outdoor clothes dryer. It's basically a clothesline shaped like a big umbrella (in fact it collapses/expands just like an umbrella). I haven't been able to use it yet because it rained all day, but I think it will work out. One thing I'm worried about is rust. I have a feeling I'm going to have to cart this thing in and out each weekend or else paint it with Rustoleum.
Apr. 12th, 2009
04:08 pm - Invasion of the Trojans!
Last week my computer became infected with a Trojan, probably from having visited a hacked web site. Despite having been on the internet for years, this is the first time my machine has actually been infected.
I thought McAfee AV took care of the Trojan, but every day McAfee gave me a new security notice. Suddenly the single Trojan became two different Trojans, the two became three, then the three became 20 copies of a single Trojan.
I use this computer to access financial data (401k account, bank account, etc) so it's got to be secure. McAfee didn't seem to be helping so I began to seriously consider re-installing Windows. I'd hate to take that route though, because I know I would end up losing valuable data. Plus, wouldn't it be a shame if I re-installed, and then got re-infected a month later?
I ended up installing a free program called Spybot Search & Destroy. It caught several things McAfee didn't. Hopefully, the computer is locked down now, but if not, I guess I've have to re-install.
Mar. 16th, 2009
07:08 pm - Craigslist
I have found Nirvana. And it is called Craigslist.
I've heard about Craigslist, of course. The site made the local news once or twice because the city police used Craigslist postings to bust a prostitution ring. I had even visited the site a few times, no not for prostitutes, but to check out the "rant/rave" section. I never really explored the site, though, until recently.
I was hunting around for used furniture stores and coming up empty. There didn't seem to be any stores around, at least none that were still in business. I didn't really feel like hitting the garage sales. I thought, "wouldn't it be nice if people sold used furniture online... hey, Craigslist!". I checked out the site, and sure enough they had a furniture section. There was a lot of furniture for sale, too, some of it very nice and reasonably priced.
I ended up buying a table. I might buy another item or two. Good bargains make me happy for some reason.
Dec. 24th, 2008
10:03 am - Netflix
I finally broke down and subscribed to Netflix. I'm on the $5 plan, which limits me to two dvds per month. That's $2.50 per rental, which is kind of pricey, but it's worth it considering how much time and gas I'll save by not having to go back and forth to Blockbuster. Plus, there are no late fees to worry about.
I'm thinking about bumping up to the $9 plan, which allows an unlimited number of rentals per month (but you can only have one at any one time).
I love the selection Netflix has. It's certainly an improvement over the local Blockbuster. For example, I've wanted to see Donnie Darko forever, but Blockbuster lost their copy and wasn't interested in replacing it. Also in the queue is Harvey, starring James Stewart, and a Ginger Rogers movie. I think of all the cable channels, I miss Turner Classics the most.
Dec. 22nd, 2008
05:37 pm - Flying Cars and Free Food
I've been meaning to dig into the "masters" of science fiction for a while. My library carries a few books written by Robert A. Heinlein, the so-called "dean of science fiction". I read a few of Heinlein's novels in high school, wasn't impressed, but thought I'd give him another chance.
I ended up checking out a couple of his books. One was mediocre, the other was pointless. Maybe the books have lost their relevance over the years. One of the books was interesting in its own way, however. The book was published in 1942 and was set in the future. In the future, as depicted by Heinlein, productivity has far outpaced consumption. As a result, many people are without work, and receive free food and a yearly stipend from the government. There is no social stigma for the unemployed; the government wants people to take it easy, in order to help reduce productivity.
The idea that in the future people won't need to work is interesting because I once read that in the 1940's, people believed that mechanization/industrialization would result in people needing to work fewer hours. It was thought the average work week would be half what it is now. So, Heinlein really just extended this belief.
It was also interesting to read Heinlein's description of technology. Let's start with the flying car. I've yet to see one but Heinlein scores some points because the car was equipped with an "integrator" (computer). At one point the protagonist went to a public pay phone and made a copy of a piece of paper, which was then sent through the phone line... but was delivered by the US Postal Service. I'm not sure if he meant that the copy was downloaded at the USPS office and then hand delivered, or if he meant the USPS electronically shuffled the copy to its destination point. He was fuzzy on the details so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and give him credit for imagining the fax.
Heinlein also spent a good deal of time discussing genetics. Biology class was a long time ago but his descriptions sounded reasonable and I was left thinking that biology was actually pretty advanced in 1942.
One more thing. I enjoyed the retro language used in the book. Men referred to women they were involved with as "kid" and to each other as "sport", just like on Turner Classics.
Nov. 22nd, 2008
08:00 am - Retirement Investing
As of Friday morning, my 401k account was down 50% for the year. If the account ends the year with a 50% loss, it will take seven years of 10% gains just to return to where the account was at the beginning of 2008.
I'm stunned. I never anticipated the market would take such a heavy hit. At the start of 2008, there were a few doomsayers out there but for the most part everyone was saying we would have a mild recession followed by a quick recovery. I felt confident about my 401k account because everyone was saying what a great value stocks were based on the P/E (Price/Earnings) ratio. Sadly, I and everyone else on the planet were looking at the current P/E, while according to an article I read a short time ago, we should have been looking at the historical P/E:
The 10-year price-to-earnings ratio tells an incredibly consistent story over the last century. It has averaged about 16 over that time. There have been long periods when it stayed above 16 and even shot above 20, like the 1920s, 1960s and recent years. As recently as last October, when other measures suggested the market was reasonably valued, the Graham-Dodd version of the ratio was a disturbing 27. But periods in which the ratio has jumped above 20 have always been followed by steep declines and at least a decade of poor returns.
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/busine
I am completely dependent on my 401k account to fund my retirement years, and if it's true that the market will struggle for the next decade, then I can pretty much forget about early retirement. That's so disappointing. If there is one bright spot in this mess, it's that I've become numb to the daily market swings. The market can lose or gain 5% a day and I hardly notice. I read that a lot of other people feel that same way, so I'm hoping that everyone that could be scared out of the market has been scared out, and that the bottom is in sight.
Oct. 26th, 2008
06:44 pm - Books
I've read quite a few books since I traded in my cable box for a library card. I've discovered something surprising: most books, like most movies and TV shows, are mediocre.
It surprises me because I know it's very difficult to get published. With so much competition, you'd think the books that do get published are top notch. Not so. Take the book I'm reading right now. It's a sci-fi book, written in 1993. As an aside.... it's not really a sci-fi book, in my opinion. I guess the publishers labeled it as sci-fi because the book briefly mentions the new-fangled internet (only the author calls the internet the "computer net", and implies it will never take off in the business world because of viruses).
Anyway, the book is about a contractor working on a project. An extortionist tries to squeeze the project leaders for money. The extortionist goes so far as to rig a device to electrocute someone. For reasons never really explained, the contractor, acting on his own, fiddles with the device in order to make the murder look like an accident (the project leaders are ok with this; in fact they approve, because police involvement would slow the project down). As the story goes on, the contractor gets more and more involved in this mess, and the reader is left asking, "why?"
Worst of all, one of the characters in the book is obviously working with the extortionist. The character drops incriminating statements, such as "it won't matter, I'll have a lot of money soon". The clueless protagonist can't seem to put two and two together.
The book I'm reading now was pulled randomly off a library shelf. Would it help to limit myself to award-winning books? Nope. I tried it. Awards don't mean anything. I finished an award-winning novel a couple of weeks ago that was so bad I had to wonder if the publishers purchased the reward.
Am I going to trade in my library card for a cable box? Nope. I'll keep trying to read. Maybe most novels are mediocre, but at least the library is free.
Oct. 9th, 2008
06:49 pm - Wall Street Woes
I can't believe the Dow is back at 2003 levels. All the value gained since the end of the last recession has been lost, and much of it has been lost within the last week or so.
I know the stock market has its ups and downs, but it looks like this entire decade will end with a loss. There is no end in sight, and it worries me the US won't be able to regain its footing. Where is our economy? We've exported and outsources all of our jobs. The nation is over 10 trillion dollars in debt, and I don't think that even counts the money the government owes to the social security trust fund, or the trillion dollars Comrade Paulson handed off to mismanaged investment firms and insurance companies.
I believe half of America's debt is held by China. I was wondering today, how in the world are we going to pay the Chinese back, and what would happen if we get to the point where we can't make our monthly repayments? Will we auction off Yellowstone National Park? Or maybe we'll just declare war on China. It's not such an outrageous plan. Think about it: one of the major complaints people have about the Iraq war is the cost - it costs $40 million per day if I recall correctly. Perhaps in some not-so-distance future, hawks will sell a war against China by saying, "every day we're at war with China, the nation saves $50 billion in interest!".
But I digress.
I'm worried about my 401k retirement plan. I'm depending on it for my retirement. I certainly can't rely on social security; it may not be around when I'm ready to retire.
Aug. 23rd, 2008
11:03 am - Factoid
Interesting factoid from the September issue of Scientific American:
"... zip code, date of birth and gender are enough to uniquely identify 87% of the U.S. population."
I'll think twice next time I register at a web site and enter that information.
Apr. 18th, 2008
06:09 am - Earthquake
The Midwest had an earthquake this morning at about 4:30. I happened to be awake at the time (insomnia). I thought I felt/heard the house move and then all the sudden the mattress starting moving like someone was shaking it. It only lasted a few seconds. Earthquakes are so rare around here that at 4:30am it seemed more plausible that 1) I had a poltergeist or 2) I had dreamed the whole thing or 3) someone was under my bed. I actually looked under the bed to rule out possibility #3!
Apr. 17th, 2008
06:40 pm - What I Noticed Today
I noticed the trees are starting to bud out. The elms have really taken off and even the oaks are starting to bud a little.
I'll miss early spring. I love trees, but leaves obscure vision. Lately I've been seeing a lot of birds, including redheaded woodpeckers, but I won't see as many once the trees leaf out. As spring ages, other problems arise: mosquitoes and ticks make an appearance. I love the variety in the weather seen in early spring: lots of rain, so the grass stays Irish-green, moderately warm days and chilly nights. I suppose early spring must be my favorite season.
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